Category Archives: Weather

Tropical Storm Karen Gets Weak As It Approaches Louisiana

Tropical Storm KarenUPDATED NEW ORLEANS (October 5, 2013) –

                                 LATEST WARNINGS AND WATCHES

KAREN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Morgan City, LA. to the mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire New Orleans metropolitan area, Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and from east of the Pearl River to Indian Pass, Florida.

The National Weather Service lifted hurricane watches along the Gulf Coast on Friday, as Tropical Storm Karen ran the gamut from a potential Louisiana-bound  possible hurricane with 65 mph winds, to a slight change in course, to stationary, and now appears to be weakening – with winds of up to only 40 mph – as it gets closer to land.

A 10:00 AM advisory today indicated the storm was hesitating about 180 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving north at 7 mph, with a slow turn northeast expected Saturday night, then another, faster turn east-northeast on Sunday night and Monday.

UPDATED NEW ORLEANS (October 3, 2013) — 2013 will likely go down as one of the most uneventful hurricane seasons on record, but it’s not over ’til November 30th. Thursday evening, forecasters were predicting that Tropical Storm Karen could possibly become a Category 1 hurricane as it nears the coast of Louisiana Saturday morning, and make a direct near the mouth of the Mississippi River.

At 10PM, Karen was located about 340 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, The National Weather Service said Karen continues to move slowly northwest at 10 mph, with winds of 65 mph

Along the Gulf Coast, high winds, power outages, along with storm surges of anywhere from 2-5 feet are expected in some places, and a state of emergency has been declared by the Governors of Louisiana and Mississippi, while Governor Scott declared a state of emergency in 18 Florida counties.

Tropical Storm Karen (photo courtesy noaa)
In Alabama, Governor Robert Bentley is encouraging residents to be prepared. “Our state agencies are monitoring the track of Tropical Storm Karen, and Alabama families should do the same,” Governor Bentley said in a statement earlier today. “Understand this storm can affect people inland as well, not just on the Coast.

In Louisiana, a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for St. Tammany, Ascension, Livingston, assumption, St. James. St. John the Baptist, Upper Lafourche, St. Charles, Upper Jefferson, Orleans, Upper Plaquemines, Upper St. Bernard. Upper , lower Terrebonne, lower Lafourche and Southern Tangipahoa.

A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch was issued in Louisiana for lower Jefferson, lower Plaquemines, lower St. Bernard, and for portions of Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi Coastal Waters, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Hancock, Harrison and Jackson counties in Mississippi. The Hurricane Watch extends west all the way to Destin, Florida.

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FEMA has activated a Liaison Team embedded at the National Hurricane Center in Miami and, in a statement, FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate said “Gulf Coast residents in potentially impacted areas should take steps now to be prepared and follow the direction of local officials.”

The amount of resources re-activated by FEMA in the midst of an ongoing government shutdown would depend on the magnitude of projected need. CNN reports the about 86% of the agency’s workers were furloughed because of the shutdown

On August 28 last year Tropical Storm Isaac brought a storm surge that caused at least nine deaths, five in Louisiana and two each in Mississippi and Florida.

                                                      DEFINITIONS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

Slowest Start To A Hurricane Season On Record

Reblogged from Real Science stevengoddard.wordpress.com

Obama says that hurricanes are getting worse, based on some research done at the Choom Climatological Institute.

As we approach the end of August, there have been no Atlantic hurricanes. By this date in the year 1886, there had already been seven hurricanes – including three major hurricanes, one of which wiped the city of Indianola, Texas off the map.

ScreenHunter_357 Aug. 24 09.14

1886 Atlantic hurricane season – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A kinder, gentler natural hurricane from 1886

ScreenHunter_359 Aug. 24 09.46

Obama’s presidency has also seen the fewest US hurricane landfalls of any president. Three hurricanes have hit the US while he was in office, compared to twenty-six while Grover Cleveland was in office.

ScreenHunter_19 May. 08 06.04

2013 Hurricane Season Still Likely To Be Above Normal

NOAA inage of Hurricane IkeIf you thought, because it’s been sort of quiet in the Gulf of Mexico, that we could be lucky enough to get through this hurricane season without a major hurricane, think again. With four storms (Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) behind us, we’re getting close to the peak of the season (mid-August-October).

NOAA’s updated outlook predicts a 70 percent chance the season will be above normal. The May outlook was for 13-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes. Now, it’s 13-19 named storms (winds 39 mph or higher), 6-9 hurricanes (winds 74 mph or higher), and 3-5 major hurricanes (Cat. 3, 4 or 5) with winds at least 111 mph. Don’t see much difference?

Predictions are still high because “the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Also, two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season.”

Motivating this change is a decreased likelihood that La Niña will develop and bring reduced wind shear that further strengthens the hurricane season.

Conditions now are like those that have produced many active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that help turn storm systems there into tropical storms and hurricanes.

Strange Skies

mammatus clouds in MichiganEarlier this week some folks up north saw something in the sky. Actually, it was the atmosphere, and fear monger Chicken Little would have really been hysterically shouting “The sky is falling”. Of course, since the sky wasn’t falling, it wasn’t an alien invasion, nor the end of the world, there had to be a scientific explanation.

 

It seems that what was seen by the good folks like Joe Nottage (who took this picture) in Michigan & Wisconsin was a rarely seen mammatus, clouds that float with pouches of water, sometimes with ice inside, and can signal severe weather, but they do not (as falsely believed) continue down to form tornadoes.

Weather.com explains “The ice crystals sublimate, or change from ice to water vapor as they fall, causing the surrounding air to thermodynamically cool. The cooled air becomes negatively buoyant and begins to sink, producing the punched-out look indicative of the mammatus cloud.”

We might never see them on the Gulf Coast but if you want to see more check out this gallery of mammatus clouds